100k TWh was the total annual energy demand / yr. Auke has allowed 5 hrs storage at average energy production, which explains why it is ~20%.
This is probably a large underestimate still as renewables have a lot lower capacity factor and so will not produce at an average hourly rate. Also demand is variable and batteries will predominantly cover the high demand period in early evening, therefore think that the requirement could be double or triple the 50TWh estimate
Recent literature on high renewable energy grid come to the conclusion that 4-hour storage is the max you need up to about 85-90% renewable energy penetration because of a variety of factors including the complimentary times that wind and solar produce, and increasing capacity factors for the renewable energy assets like wind i.e. low wind/ high capacity factors wind turbines with Capacity Factors as high as 60%
Yep I don't disagree with that, but with the important clarification that it would be 4 hours at near peak demand, not average, which is why I think it is underestimated. At this time frame it does mean that Li ion can cover most of the needs though.
I still think it's not only plausible, but the best solution we have for the energy transition, and I am really excited to see the reduction in battery prices and associated demand increase for stationary storage this year.
Pleased to see S-curves rather than mistaking them for exponential, even if they do look alike at first. We want solutions that top out.
As an Australian I saw a grid battery installed to widespread derision just 7 years ago, that became operational within 6 months of contracts signed, that has both aided grid reliability and earned excellent returns on investment since. Whole battery factories have been built and have already added 20X more battery storage than that to Australian grids (and vastly more elsewhere) since then, all of it getting progressively cheaper.
To some extent using grid batteries has been out of expedience - quick fixes more than deep planning. Yet it seems to me even relatively small amounts have a big impact long before we can see a full sufficiency of storage. Enough to carry solar overnight on an every sunny day basis will impact gas peakers for example.
I had thought we'd be looking to pumped hydro for the long deep storage part - emerging industry confidence that wind and solar would grow enough to need it leading to investments in it - and some are in the pipeline. Yet the cost effectiveness of batteries keeps improving and the potential for cost effective long deep storage using them may see a bit more wait and see. Which just makes adding batteries in the meantime - expedience - more attractive.
Batteries, like wind and solar before them have crossed cost thresholds that mean nothing will be same ever again. I think the US is probably doing a bit of catch up compared to RE, especially solar, in Australia - but will do it much cheaper and quicker.
Auke Hoekstra's article presents an optimistic view of the role that stationary batteries will play in transitioning to a 100% renewable energy grid. While his analysis is compelling, there are several areas where he may have overlooked complexities or made overly simplistic assumptions:
1. **Overestimation of Cost Reductions**:
- **Learning Curve Limitations**: Hoekstra assumes a continuous 25% cost reduction for every doubling of cumulative production, leading to battery costs as low as \$10/kWh. This projection may not account for diminishing returns as technologies mature. Manufacturing efficiencies and material cost reductions often plateau, making such steep declines less likely in the long term.
- **Material Costs and Scarcity**: Even with abundant materials like sodium, the costs associated with extraction, processing, and manufacturing at scale might not decrease as rapidly as anticipated. There could be unforeseen expenses related to supply chain logistics or raw material purity requirements.
2. **Technical and Practical Challenges with Sodium Batteries**:
- **Performance Limitations**: Sodium-ion batteries are less energy-dense than lithium-ion batteries, which could limit their applicability or require larger physical spaces for the same storage capacity.
- **Commercial Viability**: The technology is still emerging, and there may be technical hurdles that delay mass production or affect longevity and reliability compared to established lithium-based technologies.
3. **Underestimation of Infrastructure and Grid Integration Challenges**:
- **Grid Management Complexity**: Transitioning to a decentralized, bottom-up grid introduces significant technical challenges in grid management, balancing supply and demand, and ensuring stability. Advanced grid management systems and protocols need to be developed and widely adopted.
- **Regulatory and Policy Barriers**: Changes in grid structure require supportive policies and regulations. The transition may face resistance from established utilities and require significant legislative efforts.
4. **Assumption of Continuous Exponential Growth**:
- **Market Saturation**: Exponential growth is not sustainable indefinitely. Market saturation, decreased demand growth, or alternative technologies could slow the adoption rate of batteries.
- **Economic Factors**: Economic downturns, changes in investment trends, or shifts in energy prices could impact the growth trajectory of battery installations.
5. **Simplification of Storage Requirements**:
- **Adequacy of 5 Hours of Storage**: The assumption that 5 hours of storage is sufficient may not hold in all contexts. Regions with less consistent renewable energy generation or higher peak demands might require more extensive storage solutions.
- **Seasonal Variability**: Hoekstra acknowledges the need for seasonal storage but suggests it represents only about 5% of energy flows. This might underestimate the complexity and scale of seasonal fluctuations in renewable energy availability, especially in regions with significant seasonal variation in sunlight or wind.
6. **Battery Lifespan and Replacement Costs**:
- **Realistic Lifespan Estimates**: Assuming a 25-year lifespan for batteries may be optimistic. Factors such as depth of discharge, operating temperatures, and charging rates can significantly affect battery degradation.
- **Environmental and Economic Costs of Replacement**: Regular battery replacements involve not only economic costs but also environmental impacts related to manufacturing and recycling or disposing of old batteries.
7. **Environmental and Social Impacts**:
- **Resource Extraction**: Scaling up battery production requires substantial increases in mining activities, which can have environmental and social consequences, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and community displacement.
- **End-of-Life Management**: The article does not address the challenges associated with recycling or disposing of large volumes of batteries at the end of their useful life.
8. **Consumer Adoption and Behavior**:
- **Willingness to Invest**: The assumption that consumers will readily adopt home battery systems may overlook economic barriers or lack of incentives, especially in lower-income households or regions without supportive policies.
- **Education and Awareness**: Successful integration of decentralized storage requires consumer understanding and acceptance, which may require significant education and outreach efforts.
9. **Competition from Alternative Technologies**:
- **Other Storage Solutions**: Technologies like pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage, or emerging storage solutions might compete with batteries, potentially affecting market dynamics and adoption rates.
- **Advancements in Grid Management**: Improvements in demand response, energy efficiency, and grid interconnections could reduce the reliance on battery storage.
10. **Overlooking Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks**:
- **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Global events, trade disputes, or supply chain disruptions could affect the availability of materials and components necessary for battery production.
- **Dependence on Specific Technologies**: Relying heavily on a single technology type may introduce risks if unforeseen challenges arise with that technology.
11. **Financial and Investment Risks**:
- **Upfront Capital Costs**: The initial investment required for widespread battery deployment is substantial. Securing financing and ensuring equitable access could be challenging.
- **Return on Investment Uncertainties**: Fluctuating energy prices and regulatory changes can affect the financial viability of battery investments for consumers and utilities.
12. **Assumption of Global Homogeneity**:
- **Regional Variations**: The feasibility of the proposed battery and renewable energy integration may vary widely between countries and regions due to differences in climate, economic conditions, infrastructure, and regulatory environments.
- **One-Size-Fits-All Approach**: A universal solution may not address specific local challenges, such as urban density constraints, land availability, or cultural factors affecting energy use.
In summary, while Auke Hoekstra presents an encouraging outlook on the potential of stationary batteries to revolutionize the energy grid, there are several areas where his analysis might benefit from a more nuanced consideration of the complexities involved. Addressing these factors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a fully renewable and battery-integrated energy system.
Great post! One quibble: if we're going to electrify industrial energy/chemical processes that currently run on fossil fuels, we'll probably need to 3x the existing electricity consumption. Those applications can then accommodate VRE seasonality b/c they are more sensitive to the price of electricity. Then seasonal storage won't be needed. That's my take, anyway.
Everything I read suggests that battery storage is only suitable for very short term use. But with LFP batteries the self discharge rate is reported in the range 1 to 5% per MONTH. Even at the worst case, that makes say 90 day storage very achievable. If battery prices do fall to your predicted values, surely that will impact the future for domestic electricity?
Die IEA schätzt, dass 90 Prozent der Speicher Batterien sein werden (bis 2030) und der Rest im Wesentlichen Pumpspeicher (oder sowas wie Energy Vault). Ich denke, das ist beim Strom absolut realistisch.
Aus meiner Sicht brauchen wir zusätzlich vor allem thermische Speicher. Denn wir wollen im großen Stil unvermeidbare Abwärme zwischenspeichern, um sie anschließend als Prozessenergie zu verwenden. Hier braucht es aus meiner Sicht auch Technologien, die ähnlich disruptive Innovationen sind.
Das deutsche Unternehmen Enapter hofft mit seinen kleinen, modularen Elektrolyseuren auch im Hinblick auf Wasserstoffproduktion eine disruptive Innovation zu haben. Mal sehen.
50 TWh batteries would deliver 18,250 TWh of electricity a year if cycled 100% once per day. That is less than 20% of the 100k TWh estimate.
A 10 TW system can only generate 84,200 TWh per year running 24/7.
What am I missing?
100k TWh was the total annual energy demand / yr. Auke has allowed 5 hrs storage at average energy production, which explains why it is ~20%.
This is probably a large underestimate still as renewables have a lot lower capacity factor and so will not produce at an average hourly rate. Also demand is variable and batteries will predominantly cover the high demand period in early evening, therefore think that the requirement could be double or triple the 50TWh estimate
Recent literature on high renewable energy grid come to the conclusion that 4-hour storage is the max you need up to about 85-90% renewable energy penetration because of a variety of factors including the complimentary times that wind and solar produce, and increasing capacity factors for the renewable energy assets like wind i.e. low wind/ high capacity factors wind turbines with Capacity Factors as high as 60%
Yep I don't disagree with that, but with the important clarification that it would be 4 hours at near peak demand, not average, which is why I think it is underestimated. At this time frame it does mean that Li ion can cover most of the needs though.
I still think it's not only plausible, but the best solution we have for the energy transition, and I am really excited to see the reduction in battery prices and associated demand increase for stationary storage this year.
I'm also bullish on iron air batteries for longer duration storage as well, in the week long range.
Yep, I like the concept. Will be good to see how the form energy pilot plant performs.
Pleased to see S-curves rather than mistaking them for exponential, even if they do look alike at first. We want solutions that top out.
As an Australian I saw a grid battery installed to widespread derision just 7 years ago, that became operational within 6 months of contracts signed, that has both aided grid reliability and earned excellent returns on investment since. Whole battery factories have been built and have already added 20X more battery storage than that to Australian grids (and vastly more elsewhere) since then, all of it getting progressively cheaper.
To some extent using grid batteries has been out of expedience - quick fixes more than deep planning. Yet it seems to me even relatively small amounts have a big impact long before we can see a full sufficiency of storage. Enough to carry solar overnight on an every sunny day basis will impact gas peakers for example.
I had thought we'd be looking to pumped hydro for the long deep storage part - emerging industry confidence that wind and solar would grow enough to need it leading to investments in it - and some are in the pipeline. Yet the cost effectiveness of batteries keeps improving and the potential for cost effective long deep storage using them may see a bit more wait and see. Which just makes adding batteries in the meantime - expedience - more attractive.
Batteries, like wind and solar before them have crossed cost thresholds that mean nothing will be same ever again. I think the US is probably doing a bit of catch up compared to RE, especially solar, in Australia - but will do it much cheaper and quicker.
Auke Hoekstra's article presents an optimistic view of the role that stationary batteries will play in transitioning to a 100% renewable energy grid. While his analysis is compelling, there are several areas where he may have overlooked complexities or made overly simplistic assumptions:
1. **Overestimation of Cost Reductions**:
- **Learning Curve Limitations**: Hoekstra assumes a continuous 25% cost reduction for every doubling of cumulative production, leading to battery costs as low as \$10/kWh. This projection may not account for diminishing returns as technologies mature. Manufacturing efficiencies and material cost reductions often plateau, making such steep declines less likely in the long term.
- **Material Costs and Scarcity**: Even with abundant materials like sodium, the costs associated with extraction, processing, and manufacturing at scale might not decrease as rapidly as anticipated. There could be unforeseen expenses related to supply chain logistics or raw material purity requirements.
2. **Technical and Practical Challenges with Sodium Batteries**:
- **Performance Limitations**: Sodium-ion batteries are less energy-dense than lithium-ion batteries, which could limit their applicability or require larger physical spaces for the same storage capacity.
- **Commercial Viability**: The technology is still emerging, and there may be technical hurdles that delay mass production or affect longevity and reliability compared to established lithium-based technologies.
3. **Underestimation of Infrastructure and Grid Integration Challenges**:
- **Grid Management Complexity**: Transitioning to a decentralized, bottom-up grid introduces significant technical challenges in grid management, balancing supply and demand, and ensuring stability. Advanced grid management systems and protocols need to be developed and widely adopted.
- **Regulatory and Policy Barriers**: Changes in grid structure require supportive policies and regulations. The transition may face resistance from established utilities and require significant legislative efforts.
4. **Assumption of Continuous Exponential Growth**:
- **Market Saturation**: Exponential growth is not sustainable indefinitely. Market saturation, decreased demand growth, or alternative technologies could slow the adoption rate of batteries.
- **Economic Factors**: Economic downturns, changes in investment trends, or shifts in energy prices could impact the growth trajectory of battery installations.
5. **Simplification of Storage Requirements**:
- **Adequacy of 5 Hours of Storage**: The assumption that 5 hours of storage is sufficient may not hold in all contexts. Regions with less consistent renewable energy generation or higher peak demands might require more extensive storage solutions.
- **Seasonal Variability**: Hoekstra acknowledges the need for seasonal storage but suggests it represents only about 5% of energy flows. This might underestimate the complexity and scale of seasonal fluctuations in renewable energy availability, especially in regions with significant seasonal variation in sunlight or wind.
6. **Battery Lifespan and Replacement Costs**:
- **Realistic Lifespan Estimates**: Assuming a 25-year lifespan for batteries may be optimistic. Factors such as depth of discharge, operating temperatures, and charging rates can significantly affect battery degradation.
- **Environmental and Economic Costs of Replacement**: Regular battery replacements involve not only economic costs but also environmental impacts related to manufacturing and recycling or disposing of old batteries.
7. **Environmental and Social Impacts**:
- **Resource Extraction**: Scaling up battery production requires substantial increases in mining activities, which can have environmental and social consequences, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and community displacement.
- **End-of-Life Management**: The article does not address the challenges associated with recycling or disposing of large volumes of batteries at the end of their useful life.
8. **Consumer Adoption and Behavior**:
- **Willingness to Invest**: The assumption that consumers will readily adopt home battery systems may overlook economic barriers or lack of incentives, especially in lower-income households or regions without supportive policies.
- **Education and Awareness**: Successful integration of decentralized storage requires consumer understanding and acceptance, which may require significant education and outreach efforts.
9. **Competition from Alternative Technologies**:
- **Other Storage Solutions**: Technologies like pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage, or emerging storage solutions might compete with batteries, potentially affecting market dynamics and adoption rates.
- **Advancements in Grid Management**: Improvements in demand response, energy efficiency, and grid interconnections could reduce the reliance on battery storage.
10. **Overlooking Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks**:
- **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Global events, trade disputes, or supply chain disruptions could affect the availability of materials and components necessary for battery production.
- **Dependence on Specific Technologies**: Relying heavily on a single technology type may introduce risks if unforeseen challenges arise with that technology.
11. **Financial and Investment Risks**:
- **Upfront Capital Costs**: The initial investment required for widespread battery deployment is substantial. Securing financing and ensuring equitable access could be challenging.
- **Return on Investment Uncertainties**: Fluctuating energy prices and regulatory changes can affect the financial viability of battery investments for consumers and utilities.
12. **Assumption of Global Homogeneity**:
- **Regional Variations**: The feasibility of the proposed battery and renewable energy integration may vary widely between countries and regions due to differences in climate, economic conditions, infrastructure, and regulatory environments.
- **One-Size-Fits-All Approach**: A universal solution may not address specific local challenges, such as urban density constraints, land availability, or cultural factors affecting energy use.
In summary, while Auke Hoekstra presents an encouraging outlook on the potential of stationary batteries to revolutionize the energy grid, there are several areas where his analysis might benefit from a more nuanced consideration of the complexities involved. Addressing these factors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a fully renewable and battery-integrated energy system.
Great post! One quibble: if we're going to electrify industrial energy/chemical processes that currently run on fossil fuels, we'll probably need to 3x the existing electricity consumption. Those applications can then accommodate VRE seasonality b/c they are more sensitive to the price of electricity. Then seasonal storage won't be needed. That's my take, anyway.
Everything I read suggests that battery storage is only suitable for very short term use. But with LFP batteries the self discharge rate is reported in the range 1 to 5% per MONTH. Even at the worst case, that makes say 90 day storage very achievable. If battery prices do fall to your predicted values, surely that will impact the future for domestic electricity?
http://www.EnergyStorage.ninja
Energy storage tech geek out!
Die IEA schätzt, dass 90 Prozent der Speicher Batterien sein werden (bis 2030) und der Rest im Wesentlichen Pumpspeicher (oder sowas wie Energy Vault). Ich denke, das ist beim Strom absolut realistisch.
Aus meiner Sicht brauchen wir zusätzlich vor allem thermische Speicher. Denn wir wollen im großen Stil unvermeidbare Abwärme zwischenspeichern, um sie anschließend als Prozessenergie zu verwenden. Hier braucht es aus meiner Sicht auch Technologien, die ähnlich disruptive Innovationen sind.
Das deutsche Unternehmen Enapter hofft mit seinen kleinen, modularen Elektrolyseuren auch im Hinblick auf Wasserstoffproduktion eine disruptive Innovation zu haben. Mal sehen.