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Ken Fabian's avatar

Pleased to see S-curves rather than mistaking them for exponential, even if they do look alike at first. We want solutions that top out.

As an Australian I saw a grid battery installed to widespread derision just 7 years ago, that became operational within 6 months of contracts signed, that has both aided grid reliability and earned excellent returns on investment since. Whole battery factories have been built and have already added 20X more battery storage than that to Australian grids (and vastly more elsewhere) since then, all of it getting progressively cheaper.

To some extent using grid batteries has been out of expedience - quick fixes more than deep planning. Yet it seems to me even relatively small amounts have a big impact long before we can see a full sufficiency of storage. Enough to carry solar overnight on an every sunny day basis will impact gas peakers for example.

I had thought we'd be looking to pumped hydro for the long deep storage part - emerging industry confidence that wind and solar would grow enough to need it leading to investments in it - and some are in the pipeline. Yet the cost effectiveness of batteries keeps improving and the potential for cost effective long deep storage using them may see a bit more wait and see. Which just makes adding batteries in the meantime - expedience - more attractive.

Batteries, like wind and solar before them have crossed cost thresholds that mean nothing will be same ever again. I think the US is probably doing a bit of catch up compared to RE, especially solar, in Australia - but will do it much cheaper and quicker.

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R&D's avatar

Auke Hoekstra's article presents an optimistic view of the role that stationary batteries will play in transitioning to a 100% renewable energy grid. While his analysis is compelling, there are several areas where he may have overlooked complexities or made overly simplistic assumptions:

1. **Overestimation of Cost Reductions**:

- **Learning Curve Limitations**: Hoekstra assumes a continuous 25% cost reduction for every doubling of cumulative production, leading to battery costs as low as \$10/kWh. This projection may not account for diminishing returns as technologies mature. Manufacturing efficiencies and material cost reductions often plateau, making such steep declines less likely in the long term.

- **Material Costs and Scarcity**: Even with abundant materials like sodium, the costs associated with extraction, processing, and manufacturing at scale might not decrease as rapidly as anticipated. There could be unforeseen expenses related to supply chain logistics or raw material purity requirements.

2. **Technical and Practical Challenges with Sodium Batteries**:

- **Performance Limitations**: Sodium-ion batteries are less energy-dense than lithium-ion batteries, which could limit their applicability or require larger physical spaces for the same storage capacity.

- **Commercial Viability**: The technology is still emerging, and there may be technical hurdles that delay mass production or affect longevity and reliability compared to established lithium-based technologies.

3. **Underestimation of Infrastructure and Grid Integration Challenges**:

- **Grid Management Complexity**: Transitioning to a decentralized, bottom-up grid introduces significant technical challenges in grid management, balancing supply and demand, and ensuring stability. Advanced grid management systems and protocols need to be developed and widely adopted.

- **Regulatory and Policy Barriers**: Changes in grid structure require supportive policies and regulations. The transition may face resistance from established utilities and require significant legislative efforts.

4. **Assumption of Continuous Exponential Growth**:

- **Market Saturation**: Exponential growth is not sustainable indefinitely. Market saturation, decreased demand growth, or alternative technologies could slow the adoption rate of batteries.

- **Economic Factors**: Economic downturns, changes in investment trends, or shifts in energy prices could impact the growth trajectory of battery installations.

5. **Simplification of Storage Requirements**:

- **Adequacy of 5 Hours of Storage**: The assumption that 5 hours of storage is sufficient may not hold in all contexts. Regions with less consistent renewable energy generation or higher peak demands might require more extensive storage solutions.

- **Seasonal Variability**: Hoekstra acknowledges the need for seasonal storage but suggests it represents only about 5% of energy flows. This might underestimate the complexity and scale of seasonal fluctuations in renewable energy availability, especially in regions with significant seasonal variation in sunlight or wind.

6. **Battery Lifespan and Replacement Costs**:

- **Realistic Lifespan Estimates**: Assuming a 25-year lifespan for batteries may be optimistic. Factors such as depth of discharge, operating temperatures, and charging rates can significantly affect battery degradation.

- **Environmental and Economic Costs of Replacement**: Regular battery replacements involve not only economic costs but also environmental impacts related to manufacturing and recycling or disposing of old batteries.

7. **Environmental and Social Impacts**:

- **Resource Extraction**: Scaling up battery production requires substantial increases in mining activities, which can have environmental and social consequences, including habitat destruction, water pollution, and community displacement.

- **End-of-Life Management**: The article does not address the challenges associated with recycling or disposing of large volumes of batteries at the end of their useful life.

8. **Consumer Adoption and Behavior**:

- **Willingness to Invest**: The assumption that consumers will readily adopt home battery systems may overlook economic barriers or lack of incentives, especially in lower-income households or regions without supportive policies.

- **Education and Awareness**: Successful integration of decentralized storage requires consumer understanding and acceptance, which may require significant education and outreach efforts.

9. **Competition from Alternative Technologies**:

- **Other Storage Solutions**: Technologies like pumped hydro, compressed air energy storage, or emerging storage solutions might compete with batteries, potentially affecting market dynamics and adoption rates.

- **Advancements in Grid Management**: Improvements in demand response, energy efficiency, and grid interconnections could reduce the reliance on battery storage.

10. **Overlooking Geopolitical and Supply Chain Risks**:

- **Supply Chain Vulnerabilities**: Global events, trade disputes, or supply chain disruptions could affect the availability of materials and components necessary for battery production.

- **Dependence on Specific Technologies**: Relying heavily on a single technology type may introduce risks if unforeseen challenges arise with that technology.

11. **Financial and Investment Risks**:

- **Upfront Capital Costs**: The initial investment required for widespread battery deployment is substantial. Securing financing and ensuring equitable access could be challenging.

- **Return on Investment Uncertainties**: Fluctuating energy prices and regulatory changes can affect the financial viability of battery investments for consumers and utilities.

12. **Assumption of Global Homogeneity**:

- **Regional Variations**: The feasibility of the proposed battery and renewable energy integration may vary widely between countries and regions due to differences in climate, economic conditions, infrastructure, and regulatory environments.

- **One-Size-Fits-All Approach**: A universal solution may not address specific local challenges, such as urban density constraints, land availability, or cultural factors affecting energy use.

In summary, while Auke Hoekstra presents an encouraging outlook on the potential of stationary batteries to revolutionize the energy grid, there are several areas where his analysis might benefit from a more nuanced consideration of the complexities involved. Addressing these factors would provide a more comprehensive understanding of the challenges and opportunities in transitioning to a fully renewable and battery-integrated energy system.

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