How dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers.
Excited to see such promising developments, especially for those of us who have been innovating in this space.
We’ve been working on a project that perfectly aligns with this trend, focusing on Na-Ion batteries and enhancing their durability without sacrificing cost-effectiveness. ⚡
This synergy between cutting-edge research and practical solutions is paving the way for a more sustainable and economically viable energy future. 🌍
Build the nukes. Grid Storage needs to be funded in parallel. Disappointed to see residential consumers assumed to take on the cost and initiative to purchase and install home systems to make up for failing infrastructure. If a residential consumer needs battery Storage to combat peak pricing and poor grid stability, the infrastructure is the problem.
My understanding of Wrights Law is that prices are expected to drop at a fixed percentage relative to cumulative production. Not due to annual production. Which is why the price of petrol engines would take such a long time from here to decline because a single doubling of the total historical cumulative production would now take a very long time.
Sodium batteries look promising. But lithium sulphur batteries will also likely be great. They still have lithium, but they offer the prospect of a lot my energy storage per unit of lithium.
Would agree that a shift will happen when battery prices fall further, only a small increase in storage would make a big difference to the grid services that storage could provide. Enterprise level OSS to manage it all and herd those cats: https://solarnetwork.net
Growth from 2410 GWh to 61917 GWh is ~4.7 doublings, not 8:
log (61917/2410) / log 2 = 4.7
That would result in ~$20/kWh:
80 * (0.75^4.7) = 20.7
Did I misunderstand your calculation? It is getting late. If I don't post this now, I never will, I guess.
Referring to:
"If we start with 2410 GWh in 2023 and grow with 59% per year that gives us 61.917 GWh in 2030. That would mean almost exactly 8 doublings in 2030. Each time the price would be reduced by 25%. If we started with $80/kWh in 2023 and subtracted 25% eight times in a row, the end result would be battery cells costing just $8 per kWh."
I think he just misplaced the decimal, meant to put 619,000 GWh ~(2^8 * 2400). However, I don't know how he gets 8 doublings in 7 or 8 years when each year is 60% growth according to him ... that's 1.6^7 or 1.6^8, not 2^8. This all reads like nonsense to me.
Do you think the global market can absorb 10 doublings of battery production rate? This is 2^10 = 1024 fold. The factories have to pay off, so they have to produce a couple of years (how many exactly?) to deliver ROI > 1.
This article is truly enlightening! 🔋
Excited to see such promising developments, especially for those of us who have been innovating in this space.
We’ve been working on a project that perfectly aligns with this trend, focusing on Na-Ion batteries and enhancing their durability without sacrificing cost-effectiveness. ⚡
This synergy between cutting-edge research and practical solutions is paving the way for a more sustainable and economically viable energy future. 🌍
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=If1y4ExSTQc)
So we can install 14 TWh of batteries (10 billion euro that our government reserved for 4 new nuclear power plants)
Build the nukes. Grid Storage needs to be funded in parallel. Disappointed to see residential consumers assumed to take on the cost and initiative to purchase and install home systems to make up for failing infrastructure. If a residential consumer needs battery Storage to combat peak pricing and poor grid stability, the infrastructure is the problem.
My understanding of Wrights Law is that prices are expected to drop at a fixed percentage relative to cumulative production. Not due to annual production. Which is why the price of petrol engines would take such a long time from here to decline because a single doubling of the total historical cumulative production would now take a very long time.
Sodium batteries look promising. But lithium sulphur batteries will also likely be great. They still have lithium, but they offer the prospect of a lot my energy storage per unit of lithium.
Man this is pure fantasy, did the author take into account the quantity of raw material needed if double production every year?
Batteries are not made of dollars.
This is a great update for a bet I made a few years ago that I’m hoping to lose:
https://rdrn.me/betting-batteries/
Will batteries be cheaper than coal (by my measure) by 2028 — seems very likely with your arguments!
I'm bemused by extrapolation applied to physics.
Would agree that a shift will happen when battery prices fall further, only a small increase in storage would make a big difference to the grid services that storage could provide. Enterprise level OSS to manage it all and herd those cats: https://solarnetwork.net
Did you make a mistake in your calculation?
Growth from 2410 GWh to 61917 GWh is ~4.7 doublings, not 8:
log (61917/2410) / log 2 = 4.7
That would result in ~$20/kWh:
80 * (0.75^4.7) = 20.7
Did I misunderstand your calculation? It is getting late. If I don't post this now, I never will, I guess.
Referring to:
"If we start with 2410 GWh in 2023 and grow with 59% per year that gives us 61.917 GWh in 2030. That would mean almost exactly 8 doublings in 2030. Each time the price would be reduced by 25%. If we started with $80/kWh in 2023 and subtracted 25% eight times in a row, the end result would be battery cells costing just $8 per kWh."
I think he just misplaced the decimal, meant to put 619,000 GWh ~(2^8 * 2400). However, I don't know how he gets 8 doublings in 7 or 8 years when each year is 60% growth according to him ... that's 1.6^7 or 1.6^8, not 2^8. This all reads like nonsense to me.
Do you think the global market can absorb 10 doublings of battery production rate? This is 2^10 = 1024 fold. The factories have to pay off, so they have to produce a couple of years (how many exactly?) to deliver ROI > 1.
Hi Auke, what is your source for the 236 billion grid investment?
👏